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Relations between Finland and Russia sharply deteriorated after the Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Then Helsinki, citing threats from Moscow, decided to apply for NATO membership. In April 2023, Finland became a NATO member, receiving additional security guarantees. The Finnish parliament also passed a law on the construction of a high wall on the border with Russia. Russia responded with threats and viewed this step as a serious challenge to its interests in the region. Moscow is actively strengthening its military presence near the Finnish border. Satellite images capture the large-scale construction of new infrastructure, including shelters for military aircraft, ammunition depots and field camps.

These days, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, began to threaten Finland, using rhetoric that the Kremlin had previously used to justify the invasion of Ukraine. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts commented on Medvedev's latest statements, which he made to the leading Russian news agency TASS. Medvedev's column "The New Finnish Doctrine: Stupidity, Lies, Ingratitude" was published, in which he stated that "after joining NATO, under the guise of defensive measures, Helsinki is pursuing a confrontational course in preparation for war with Russia, apparently preparing a springboard for an attack on us." Medvedev is convinced that "military activity is increasing," and the Alliance is "fully involved in these matters and is now intensively mastering all five operational environments of Finland: land, sea, air, space and cyberspace." According to Medvedev, near the borders of Russia in Lapland, NATO is creating a headquarters structure for its advanced ground forces, and in the event of a “change in the operational situation,” its number can be increased to a brigade – up to 5,000 people. According to Medvedev, aggressive “anti-Russia” has been molded from Finland even faster than from Ukraine. In his opinion, modern Finland “directly and rudely tramples on the historical and legal basis on which it exists.” In particular, we are talking about the Paris Peace Treaty between the USSR and Finland in 1947, as well as the bilateral Russian-Finnish Treaty on the Foundations of Relations in 1992. Referring to Article 44 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of International Treaties of May 23, 1969, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation threatened that "against the backdrop of the incitement in Finland of anti-Russian militaristic hysteria, supported by the clang of weapons," Helsinki gives every reason for Moscow to reconsider its refusal "to close the compensatory "historical issues" and clearly raise the issue of the moral responsibility of the current 

Finnish government for the actions of the Finns during World War II. The Supreme Court of Karelia of the Russian Federation estimated these losses at 20 trillion rubles. This is about $ 244 billion. At the same time, it must be understood that Karelia is an original Finnish territory, taken from Finland in 1940.

Medvedev's article appeared after he was on a working trip to the Northwestern Federal District in early September. Then he announced the increased military activity of Finland, Norway and Poland near the Russian borders. He also emphasized the military threat from the Baltic states and announced a change in the military approach of the Russian Federation to the border with Finland due to its accession to NATO. That is, this was a direct hint at Russia's readiness to strike at these countries, ostensibly to prevent aggression. In fact, this is also the scenario of the fall of 1939, when the Soviet Union attacked small Finland, ostensibly because it wanted to attack the huge USSR. Medvedev's statements about Finland's preparation to attack Russia are a continuation of the Kremlin's well-known tactic: to attribute aggressive intentions to its neighbors in order to justify its own militarization and leave room for further escalating steps. Moscow traditionally uses such accusations as a tool of foreign policy pressure. This rhetoric allows the Kremlin to portray any defensive moves by NATO as provocations, creating the impression of an imminent confrontation. Russia is gradually increasing its military presence along the border with Finland. In particular, in the city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 km from the Russian-Finnish border, the Russians are expanding bases to create a new army command. Russia is also actively building new railway lines along its borders with Finland and Norway. The Kremlin has reformed its military structure, creating the Leningrad Military District, which borders Estonia, Latvia, and Finland. Medvedev’s reference to “creating a bridgehead for war” is a deliberate exaggeration and is designed to mobilize domestic Russian audiences by demonizing NATO and Finland as an immediate threat. Medvedev’s statements are designed to rally the population around his government, fueling the image of Russia as a “surrounded fortress.” Medvedev appeals to the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty and the 1992 Treaty on the Foundations of Relations to portray Finland as a country that violates international law. But behind the references to international treaties and threats to return to the issue of reparations, there is hidden not only an attempt to use international legal rhetoric to legitimize potential economic claims, but also political blackmail. Medvedev’s statements are an element of political and informational pressure on Finland and other NATO members. Moscow is trying to intimidate Helsinki and demonstrate readiness for confrontation with the Alliance through Finland’s active support for Ukraine. Such statements are aimed at undermining the unity of Western partners, weakening solidarity with Kiev and creating an atmosphere of constant threat that is beneficial to the Kremlin. Finland today has one of the strongest armies in Northern Europe and demonstrates readiness for defense in the event of Russian aggression. Its armed forces are based on a system of general military duty, which allows it to mobilize more than 280 thousand reservists in the first week, and about 1 million soldiers in total. After joining NATO, Finland received additional security guarantees, and modern weapons and a high level of combat training make the Finnish army a significant factor in deterring Russia. In 1939-40, Finland quite effectively repelled a massive attack by the Red Army, which was many times superior in numbers and especially in tanks, artillery and aviation. 

This war was the result of the agreement on the distribution of spheres of influence in Eastern Europe in accordance with the secret protocols to the Non-Aggression Pact between Stalin's USSR and Hitler's Reich on August 23, 1939 and the Treaty of Friendship and Border between the Soviet Union and Germany on September 28, 1939. On November 28, 1939, the USSR broke off diplomatic relations with Finland, and on November 30, four USSR armies with a strength of 540 thousand soldiers attacked the neighboring state on the front from the Baltic to the Barents Sea. The military invasion of the Red Army caused the League of Nations to recognize the Soviet Union as an aggressor and expel it from its membership. The war ended with the loss of almost a third of its territory from Finland.

Thus, Medvedev accused Finland of preparing to attack Russia, contributing to the intensification of political, diplomatic and sanction pressure on the Russian Federation, preventing attempts to circumvent sanctions and supply dual-use goods, including through third countries, and influencing governments to make legal decisions on the transfer of blocked Russian sovereign and private assets to Ukraine. Medvedev, on behalf of the Kremlin, stated that a confrontation with Russia "could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever," accusing Finland of "Russophobia," alleged ties to Nazi Germany, and attempts in the first half of the 1940s to expand borders at the expense of the territories of modern Russia. In fact, Finland was only trying to return the territories occupied by the USSR in 1940. Medvedev also claimed that the Finnish authorities were allegedly trying to destroy the "historical and cultural identity" of Russians and commit genocide against the Slavs. You can imagine the level of lies when a country with a population of several million is accused of intending to destroy 130 million Russians. Despite the fact that since 2014 the Russian army has been destroying the Slavic population in Ukraine, and in Karelia, which was taken from Finland by the Soviet Union, Slavs have never lived, and on the territory of modern Russia, Finno-Ugric peoples are indigenous and they lived from Pskov, Novgorod, to Moscow, Smolensk, Tver, Suzdal. Even the current Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill (Gundyaev), is not a Slav, but belongs to the indigenous Finno-Ugric people of Russia, the Jerzya. The Slavs migrated to the territory of modern Russia from the territory of modern Poland only in the middle of the 8th century.

Thus, Medvedev’s threats are part of a broader Kremlin information campaign against NATO countries, which creates the basis for potential new aggression. After all, Putin’s plans are to restore the Russian empire, which Finland was part of until 1917.