Diplomatic Dispatch: Zelenskyy in Belgrade

Serbia officially does not export ammunition to Ukraine, although experts monitoring the situation speak of deliveries worth at least €800 million since 2022. These are primarily 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells — an old Soviet standard whose production, as far as is known, is established in Serbia and Bulgaria. Bulgaria also supplies ammunition to Ukraine through third countries, just as Serbia does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade went virtually unnoticed in the Serbian press. Vučić’s interest in ensuring that the visit caused as little damage as possible to relations with Russia was facilitated by a strictly controlled information environment.

Unfortunately for him, it was impossible to hide Zelenskyy’s visit from the public: Putin had already issued a statement about the need to help “patriotically minded” students in Belgrade.

The motive behind this statement is obvious: Serbian patriotism has long been measured by loyalty to Russia. Anyone who does not demonstrate obedience to the Kremlin is not considered a Serbian patriot.

…CHEESE FOR MONEY

Zelenskyy and Vučić could hardly have been united on Serbia’s refusal to join sanctions against Russia.

Nor could the two presidents have been united on the EU and NATO. While one country has been heroically resisting Russian aggression, horrific crimes and destruction for four years, hoping soon to have a chance to become part of the EU and, in the longer term — a prospect that may be much closer than it seems — a member of NATO, the other represents the main obstacle to efforts to complete the processes of European and Euro-Atlantic integration in the Western Balkans. Its European agenda has quite rightly been put on hold, while Serbia itself, under pressure from its most radical nationalists, stubbornly rejects even the idea of possible membership in the Alliance.

Therefore, Zelenskyy’s visit was primarily — if not exclusively — about supplies of ammunition, military equipment and spare parts for MiG-29 aircraft. The defensive war must be won.

Political and other areas of cooperation took a back seat in this case, although Western media reported that agreements had been signed on support for Serbia in the agricultural sector, as well as on Serbia’s participation in the reconstruction of one of Ukraine’s destroyed cities. Ukraine is certainly interested in continuing cooperation with the region through the Ukraine–Southeast Europe summits, held since 2023, as well as through the so-called Carpathian Initiative, scheduled to take place in the autumn.

Zelenskyy’s statement in support of territorial integrity — which provoked an extremely negative reaction in Pristina and Tirana — was met with considerable satisfaction and approval by the hosts of the meeting. However, in the Serbian information space, it went virtually unnoticed because the visit itself received almost no media coverage.

Thus, Zelenskyy said what his hosts wanted to hear, because during wartime ammunition and military equipment are more important than the otherwise untenable and false comparison between Kosovo and Crimea — not to mention eastern Ukraine, which has become a victim of Russian aggression.

Analysts are now assessing how far and to what extent Vučić managed to “justify himself” to the EU for his entire destructive policy, both domestically and internationally. Yet this story once again returns to the sale of ammunition and military stockpiles, which has continued since the very beginning of Russian aggression.

Vučić can continue his “balancing act” in a situation where he cannot count on the full trust of either the West or the East. At least as long as there is ammunition to sell. Or until a combination of circumstances brings “new” Serbian “patriots” to power.

The scenario in which Putin leaves the political arena before Vučić, and what that would mean for Serbia, is a subject for another time.

Miodrag VLAKHOVIČ

Montenegrin politician and former diplomat. First Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro. Former Ambassador of Montenegro to the United States of America, Canada, Iceland, the Holy See, the Order of Malta.